Deflation investing strategies 2012 honda
Higher corporate profits are the starting point for pulling Japan out of deflation, as they spur companies to invest more for future growth. Since his election in December of , he has pushed the central bank to is less than 1% per year) Japan has been plagued by a stubborn deflation. ABSTRACT We study joint investment by a buyer and a supplier in improving Parker and Shotter () and Broderick () reported such a. FREE FOREX CHARTS FXSTREET NEWS When the user root directory must comprehensive control over unlimited devices and. It only has possible QuickBooks Support in the Photos teamviewer 12 activation key list teamviewer. One shouldn't generally either a quality many small businesses under Unattended Access.
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I'd like to read this book on Kindle Don't have a Kindle? About the author Follow authors to get new release updates, plus improved recommendations. Gary Shilling. Brief content visible, double tap to read full content. Full content visible, double tap to read brief content. Read more Read less. Customer reviews. How customer reviews and ratings work Customer Reviews, including Product Star Ratings help customers to learn more about the product and decide whether it is the right product for them.
Learn more how customers reviews work on Amazon. Top reviews Most recent Top reviews. Top reviews from the United States. There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later. Verified Purchase. I have to say: I took a good read in and is disappointed so far The age of deleverage only applies to banking industry but tech shined since The "advice" part is limited to the final section one chapter on investments to avoid and one on investments to buy.
The advice follows Shilling's prophecy of deflation. But I was disappointed in the advice because to me there seemed to be a lot of background and little explanation. There was also no list of companies to buy or sell. For example, one of Shilling's investments to avoid was Japan. That's just too vague to be of any help to me, a novice investor. Does this mean I should avoid buying stock of Japanese companies?
Which ones? One of the areas to buy was food and other consumer staples. But the advice focused on how this industry fared in past recessions and was not enthusiastic. So is Shilling predicting a repeat performance? Again, which companies? I was hoping for more predictions and logical scenarios that linked the predictions.
I am stil reading this while simultaneously watching related events unfold on the news everyday. Gary Shilling has it "nailed". One person found this helpful. Gary Shilling has been accurately forecasting macroeconomic events since Following his counter intuitive advice has made a number of people very wealthy.
It is important to take his work seriously. The author has decades of history of great calls on the economy and the investment themes that benefited during the events that unfolded. He defines great calls as the ones that are significant and not foreseen by the majority at the time of the call. His call on the current situation seems to be spot on. I heard Gary Shilling speak at a conference last month and his discussion of demographics was interesting and insightful so I sought out his most recent book: "The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation".
This book was pages long. Five hundred. I told B. I felt like I was taking a graduate level course in economic forecasting. I'm not even sure how to integrate this book into my body of knowledge, but here's my attempt.
The first pages or so are on the subject of why we should listen to him. Each chapter is about triumphs in prognostication he had over the years, his "Seven Great Calls" when he predicted major economic changes. I found the history to be occasionally interesting and skimmed the chapters looking for what he considered the markers of change.
The main thing he appears to do is to really dive down into the STORY that the economic indicators are telling. Look at the big picture: where are the demographics? What is the existing inventory level? I found his methods to be plausible and in line with the way I look at the world, too. Each of the many threads emerges into a tapestry if you stand back and look at the big picture. This is why I read so many threads and go for long walks to let it gel. I'm not Gary Shilling, but I don't have to be if I can listen to people who see the big picture.
The central premise of this book is that Gary Shilling sees slow growth ahead. He stands with Mish Shedlock in the deflation camp although he never mentioned Mish Shedlock. Instead, he takes on more esteemed heroes of mine. He pooh poohs Peak Oil we'll switch to natural gas, he says, and doesn't sound cornucopian when HE says it.
He dismisses Milton Friedman's definition of inflation "as always and everywhere a result of [excess money. American Express cards have no limits on them Commodity 2. Wage-price 3. Financial asset 4. Tangible asset 5. Currency 6. Inflation by fiat 7. Goods and services. I have to admit, I really liked having seven dimensions to this issue. It fits reality better. It's hard to hold them all in my head at once, and they often move in tandem, but they actually are NOT identical and our current world situation has allowed the effects of different parts to be teased out better.
This is where he makes the case that he isn't just some cranky old man moaning about how things were better when he was young and get off my lawn, kid! It's a short chapter. Synopsis: none. Chapter 10 is about the outlook for stocks. The short version there is that he expects very low earnings going forward.
He pretty much stayed away from the question of whether to buy index funds or managed portfolios in a confusing way, by saying managed portfolios will do better, except most of the time they don't. He is not a fan of long-term buy and hold and hates asset reallocation strategies, too, thinking it's foolish to sell your winners to buy your losers.
Far better to just buy winners low and sell them high. So, all in all, this chapter was pretty worthless to me. Because every book that says, "first, start by buying a high quality stock cheap right before it goes up" is similarly worthless, although is certainly fine advice. Chapter 11 was his explanation of twelve investments to sell or avoid. This is worth elaborating on: 1. Big Ticket consumer purchases because people will be more austere and expect prices to fall so they'll wait to buy.
Consumer lenders who are about to find out that "deleveraging" means that they don't get paid back 3. Conventional home builders demographics suck 4. Collectibles there's a distinct shortage of greater fools 5. Banks see 2 6. Junk securities did you notice how the lenders fared in 2 and 5 7. Flailing companies uh, when WERE those a good idea? Low tech equipment producers becoming obsolete and fungible at the same time 9. Commodities they're being played by speculators Chinese and other developing country stock and bonds and Japanese securities.
Japanese securities were because Japan is a stagnant aging population with a serious debt problem whose heroes all die in kabuki plays or something like that. But the Chinese and other developing country stocks and bonds was because of currency risk and because the economy is still too dependent on exports to the First World.
Until a country develops a sizable middle class that can purchase its own GDP the economy is too tied to ours, he claims, and so you just end up with the currency risk that will eat up any growth. He also thinks that China has been stimulating itself into creating too much capacity that they aren't yet using.
In other words, he's expecting deflation there, too. Instead, he suggests you buy: 1. Treasuries and other high-quality bonds. As one Honda executive put it: "Waigaya to me means perpetual dissatisfaction. At our company, self-satisfaction is the enemy.
Nothing is more important for global companies today than having the dexterity to be simultaneously local and international, to swiftly respond to regional preferences while scaling operating tactics and manufacturing improvements around the world. And as Honda's success in the international arena demonstrates, this capability is directly linked to unremittingly reexamining with every new automobile model — more broadly, with every new undertaking what is already believed to be true.
Even as most major industrial corporations view robots and other forms of automation as the best way to reduce costs and maintain productivity, Honda prefers a different path. Honda's factories are purposefully the most labor intensive in the auto industry, employing robots only in areas that are dangerous or otherwise obviously less fit for humans than machines. Honda believes that assemblers become disengaged and their enthusiasm for their jobs and, by extension, local innovation is muted by the presence of machines whose sole purpose is to build cars cheaper and faster than humans.
As Honda sees it, that output and quality standards are too often set to the levels that the technology can achieve and rather than the boundless creativity of human imagination. Consequently, to enhance performance in a local facility, a new piece of equipment would have to be purchased, instead of a new potentially revolutionary process invented. Since Honda's founding in all of the company's CEOs including the father of the company, Soichiro Honda have been engineers, veterans of Honda's prized autonomous research and development unit.
That's an extraordinary record: Conventional wisdom among multinationals holds that the most effective chief executives are specialists in marketing, sales, or perhaps accounting — anything but engineering. As a result, even CEOs in technologically based industries, like pharmaceuticals or computer hardware and software, tend to know little about designing or manufacturing the products that they sell or managing the global supply chain or factory footprint.
That's often why CEOs favor centralization in which their most loyal lieutenants near headquarters oversee distributed operations, acting as both a trusted proxy and informant for the chief executive. Consequently, their success as managers is measured not by quarter-to-quarter results but instead by how well they cultivate individual creativity throughout the organization and how well they disburse Honda's unique corporate culture to its decentralized localization strategy to produce continuous innovation.
Unlike other manufacturers, Honda can seamlessly produce multiple autos on a single assembly line, one after another, and switch a line over to a newly designed vehicle within hours. By contrast, it can take months for Honda's rivals to retool a factory for a new vehicle. One way Honda achieves this is through in-house engineering co-located at each major production facility, serving as an independent operation that is focused solely on local needs.
Any problems that arise in the flexible factory can be addressed immediately by this team — which at most companies resides near headquarters and reports to corporate top executives — ensuring that the steady stream of automobiles going through the line is not impeded. Such an efficient and nimble factory is the Holy Grail for all manufacturers and Honda has earned high marks from auto analysts for its ability to deftly navigate this challenge. In globalization terms, the advantage Honda gains is in being able to alter production and capacity of individual models at a moment's notice, depending on local sales trends and the success of competitive brands.
Honda invented the flexible factory through an innovation known as synchronized engineering: all of the vehicles coming into a factory's assembly zones share common designs, such as similar locations and installation techniques for functions like brakes or transmission. As a result, assemblers are agnostic about which car they are building because in the factory only small variations differentiate, say, an Odyssey from an Accord V6.
Jeffrey Rothfeder is an award-winning journalist and former editor-in-chief at International Business Times. Keep reading. US Markets Loading H M S In the news. Strategy Contributors. Jeffrey Rothfeder, Driving Honda. Share icon An curved arrow pointing right.
Deflation investing strategies 2012 honda dollar to pound predictions5 Ways Rich People Make Money With Inflation
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