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To break even, the market would need to move up 4 pips in your direction. To make a profit, the market would need to move more than 4 pips in your direction. Price interest points, commonly known as pips, are usually expressed in decimals. Depending on the pair of currencies being traded, pips are usu- ally the last numbers of the decimal.
Most traders on the Forex trade with what is called leverage. When a trader executes a trade on the Forex, the trader is buying or selling currency in units referred to as lots which is a set quantity of money. There are typically two types of lots that traders will trade. You will see that the currency moved in our favor to 1.
Trading can be a worthy full-time profession or a great way to earn sec- ondary income. Either way, you will need to learn the three basic skills of trading as you watch price movement against time. How to determine the current trend on any time frame 2. How to develop an entry strategy that works consistently 3.
How to develop an exit strategy that works consistently Once you master these three skills, you will be in a position to take advantage of the significant profit potential in this market. After you open a trading account, the broker gives a trader the right to execute transactions, which includes certain rights and privileges, including the right to be a bull or a bear. The terms bull and bear were created by traders in the stock market in the early s to identify the direction someone was trading in the market.
The term bull was derived from the way in which bulls attack or charge, moving upward. In contrast, bears move downward when they attack or charge. Bulls, therefore, resemble a buying market, because they believe prices will continue to move upward, or rise, whereas bears resemble a selling market, because they believe prices are going move downward, or fall. Every trader has to make a decision to be either a bull or a bear before entering the market. Bulls enter the market buying first and exit selling second.
Bears do the opposite: they enter selling first and exit buying second. To make a profit in the market, you must always buy low and sell high. Both bulls and bears are trying to do that; bears just reverse the transactions see Figure Remember, there is a bid price and an ask price with a 3- to 6-pip spread on the major currencies the U. Traders buy on the ask price and sell on the bid price. If you want to enter buying, you would pay the ask price of 1.
You can enter and exit the market using a limit order, which are orders placed ahead of time to enter the market buying below where current prices are or selling above where the current prices are. They are placed like a limit order at a predetermined price; however, they turn into market orders when the market reaches the predetermined price and may be subjected to slippage.
The rule is, when you place a buy order above the current market price it is called a stop order, and when you place a sell order below where the current price is it is also called a stop order. Every trade should have an entry point, a predetermined exit point for profit, and a well-thought-out exit point for minimal loss should the market not go your way. The rule is, every buy order should have two sells: a sell limit order for profit and a sell stop order for loss protection. Conversely, every sell order should have two buy orders: a buy limit order for profit and a buy stop order for loss protection.
Some trading software programs allow the trader the ability to place an OCO one cancels the other order. This means the moment the market hits either the stop order or the sell order, it cancels the opposite order. By trading with an OCO order, you are not left exposed with a working order after either your stop or limit has been filled and you have been taken out of the market. An OCO order offers you the opportunity to set a trade and forget about it.
You can literally walk away from your computer and not be concerned with catastrophic results if you have properly quantified your potential losses before you placed the trade. No one knows where the next pip will go, so the best you can do is plan your trade and trade your plan.
One of the most important and productive habits you can adopt is properly educating yourself about the Forex before you begin trading. If you move forward without the proper education, be prepared to lose your money, much like in a casino. Just like the casino, the market will be there to take all your money. I have learned that to achieve success in trading requires learning to understand the three critical facets of trading: 1.
The technical education and trading knowledge 2. The fundamental understanding of what determines market movement 3. All successful traders learn that working through frustration is the path to success. Knowing what to do when you get frustrated is critical.
Strong people make as many mistakes as weak people. The difference is that strong people admit their mistakes, laugh at them, and learn from them, and that is how they become strong. Mistakes are part of being human. We need to appreciate our mistakes for what they are. Before you begin trading, you need to create your own mission state- ment to help you focus on becoming an educated, financially successful, long-term Forex trader.
I want you to think of your journey toward becom- ing a successful trader as a transformation of thought, a new process of knowledge build-up, followed by: 1. Disciplined thought 2. Disciplined rules 3. Practice first on a demo account to become comfortable with the trading platform before trading with real money. You begin to trade with real money, work through your emotions, and learn to trade within the equity manage- ment rules to achieve a consistent financial return.
You mechanically execute profitable trades with no emotion. More than 90 percent of all traders who attempt to become successful on the Forex fail. Our professional international team at Market Traders Institute adamantly believes in proper education first. Knowledge is the key that can make a big difference in the success of a trader, providing a necessary edge. I cannot stress this enough: the majority of the world is locked into managing its poverty or mediocrity.
Very few people learn how to manage any kind of success because they are not given any sort of manual or instruction guide to success. Growing up, we learn how to survive finan- cially from our caregivers and circles of influence. But not all mentors are successful, leaving many to learn through trial and error. Thousands of books have been written on how to achieve some sort of success. I believe that success comes from acquiring the right education about the opportunity; possessing the right work ethic; implementing the right productive daily habits; and believing with focus, concentration, action, and a positive attitude that your dream will come true.
Successful people keep things simple. They find beauty in simplicity. The average per- son, for some reason, tries very hard to complicate things, even the simplest processes or procedures. I, on the other hand, have worked hard to take a very complicated issue, Forex, and simplify it, enabling just about anyone to understand how the markets work and how to trade them. During the next 18 days, it continues the loss of information until it settles at 3 percent retention of the new information.
Our focus at MTI is to provide you with productive practical, continued education, enabling you to be trading with percent-plus recall. You must practice them over and over again until they become an unconscious habit. Doctors prac- tice on cadavers first. Pilots fly with instructors long before they go solo. I personally believe that self-empowerment is learning how to fish and that dependency is all about being handed a fish to stay alive. Make no mistake, there is no holy grail! You cannot buy any indicator or trading system that works percent of the time any more than the airlines can buy an autopilot system that eliminates the need for pilots.
I would think not, because if you could create such a trading system, all you would need to do is walk into any major financial institution like the Bank of America or the Royal Bank of Scotland and show proof that your auto- mated system works. Just as there is no perfect trading system, there is no autopilot sys- tem that works without a pilot. I very much doubt that human beings will ever put their lives on the line with a computer or autopilot system in an airplane without a pilot.
We all have bought enough electronic equip- ment in our lives—TVs, VCRs, cameras, and so forth—to know they all fail eventually. Pilots are educated and trained to fly proficiently before they are even shown where the autopilot system button is. The first time I got into the cockpit with my instructor I asked him where the autopilot button was. I did eventually learn how to engage the autopilot function and will have to say, the autopilot system is not a fail-safe function without the close moni- toring of a pilot.
As powerful as such systems are, when things start to go wrong, they cannot make spilt-second decisions in the best interest of the passengers. They can only do what they are programmed to do, and there are too many variables in flying to program absolutely everything. Autopilot systems do not work percent of the time, they have their limitations.
As a trader, you will learn that, from time to time, the trading environ- ment will be ideal enough to use an autopilot system. That is truly suc- cessful trading. I was sitting in my office at home and had been in a few trading positions for a couple of days on four different currencies. All of a sudden, they all took off like rockets in the opposite direction of my positions. Thank goodness I was not using an auto- pilot trading system or I could have been financially wiped out that day.
I was stopped out on all four currencies and was able to preserve what profit I had made. The reality is that to become a successful trader, you must go through an education process no different than that of becoming a pilot, a physician, or of any profession that requires a specific discipline to be mastered. I am even more amazed at the massive amounts of people willing to purchase these products. But I am never surprised when they call our office and share their experience of buying a Forex program that failed or disappointed them.
These traders are now pleading for help because with their current system, they keep on losing money and have no idea how to make it back. A fair question is, did the system truly fail or was it the system found between their ears that failed? You must be taught how to use the best tools available for whatever profession you want to pursue. If you are going to be a ditch digger, you need to be taught how to use a backhoe as well as a shovel and be taught in which situations one or the other should be used.
Learning to trade on Forex, from someone who is already successful at trading, is critical. Finding out which trading tools they use is equally important. Now is not the time to go bargain hunting for tools.
Bargain hunting for free or low-cost trading tools is like learning to navigate on the ocean with a compass in a foot canoe—clearly the wrong vessel for the environment. A solid built, 1,foot, state-of-the-art cruise ship with all the latest gauges for weather would be wiser. With so much at stake, do not take a shortcut on paying for quality trading tools.
These systems can be back-tested over many years instantaneously, allowing a trader to see if their trading strategy is a good one, or if they are working in the wrong direction. You can create a trading strategy that aligns with your personality, program it into a system, back-test it, and, if it is productive, have the trading system send you alerts via e-mail or cell phone when an entry and or exit signal is triggered see Figure The most important part about a trading system is that it must be simple and easy to use.
Whether it is done visually or created by a trading system, your trading strategy must have three very important components: 1. It must be able to find the current market direction. It must have a consistent entry strategy that works consistently. It must have two very clear exit strategies, one for protecting you against major losses and one for capturing a profit. In Figure , you can see a line that goes above and below the price movement against time that is monitored by a computer creating a candlestick formation candlestick formations are a way of monitoring the open, high, low, and close market prices in any given time period.
This line is called a moving trend line; a visual indicator of market direction or perhaps the current trend. When you turn on your computer and begin to review your charts on any time frame, if the current candle is above that line, the market on that time frame is in a potential uptrend, and if the current candle is below that line, the mar- ket on that time frame is in a potential downtrend. No matter what time frame you trade in, this simple exercise accompa- nied with this system can help you determine trend direction.
Before you use an autopilot program, you need to understand how it has been programmed. Looking at the moving trend line, on any time frame, can help you deter- mine market direction on that time frame. One mistake traders often make is believing that a trading system created for a minute chart will work on all time frames, such as a one-hour chart or a daily chart. Sometimes it does work, but typically, as you move a trading system from one time frame to another, you may want to adjust the settings of such a system to optimize its performance on that time frame.
It is vital to find trading software that will not only allow you to change these settings but also instantaneously back-test the results as found incorporated in MTI 4. Every trader wants the market to move in his or her direction from entry—there is nothing worse than get- ting in a trade and having the market run in the opposite direction.
One of the most important traits of a successful person is that when they are trying to make a productive, empowered decision, they gather facts. The more facts they can gather, the more informed their decision. Trading is 10 percent skill and 90 percent emotion, which is why our emotions frequently stand in the way of making good decisions.
Anytime you need to make a decision, do yourself a favor and do not make it while you are in an emotional state. Take the time to calm down and place your- self in a logical state of mind. If you do that, you will open up the left side of your brain, where all your knowledge is stored, where all your intellec- tual recall is, and you will have access to everything you have learned in your past that is productive.
You will begin to make an educated, positive, and productive decision. Trading indicators can keep you from using the right side of your brain, where all your emotions are stored. You can program buy and sell signals that have no emotion, they just monitor price movement against time.
Using different indicators together can create effective entry points, like the ones found in Figure , but they need to be manually monitored. The two moving lines overlapping the candles are moving trend lines, which can act as buy and sell signals. The line closest to the candles is a moving inner trend line and the other one is a moving outer trend line. In Figure top , you can see that if you used the moving trend lines as your entry and exit signals, right around March 10, , you would have bought the euro at approximately 1.
But where do you get in if the moving trend lines have already crossed? Do you have to sit there for another three to six months before they cross over again to find another trading opportunity? The answer is no. You can have two options. You either educate yourself how the markets move without using indicators or you learn to add additional indicators to your trading system like the waving line you see at the bottom of the chart in Figure As the market moves, it resembles the waves of the ocean.
The greatest part about a trading system is that it is constantly moni- toring the movement of the market, projecting directions with entry and exit points 24 hours a day even while you sleep or work. Using a trading system allows you to control your trading in the market, rather than the market controlling you, and to come and go, or turn off your computer, without having to do all kinds of new technical analysis of the market to catch up from where you left off.
If the lines overlapping the candles crossed while you were away, the MTI Trend Tracker allows you to enter the market at a price point where the market will more than likely reverse and rally back up in your buying direc- tion from entry, which is what every trader wants. When the moving line is going south and then U-turns to the north, the market should follow. Look at the price movement of the market and how it began to rally again. This trading system works just as effectively in a downtrend as it does in an uptrend, as you can see in Figure All the rules are the same but in the opposite direction.
When the lines overlapping the candles cross from the north to the south, it is time to sell. Once again, if you turn on your charts and the mov- ing trendlines have already crossed, giving a short signal, you can enter when the MTI Trend Tracker indicator moving north U-turns to the south. Look at the market movement on the charts after the U-turn toward the south.
Using trading indicators eliminates a lot of the guessing and allows you to focus on developing a trading strategy that works consistently, on a time frame that suits your personality. Some traders like fast action and want to turn their computer into a video game—they want to quickly scalp the market. In and out, in and out, perhaps 10 times a day.
If you enjoy day trading, use this trading system on one-hour to four-hour time frames, and if you enjoy long-term trading, use this trading system on four-hour, daily, or weekly charts In any of these cases, you let the computer do the majority of the work. Just like an autopilot system. If it were that easy, however, we would all be living in gated communities and flying our jets to our beach-house estates every weekend.
Most traders make their money during trends and lose it when the market gets turbulent or begins to go sideways. What if you were just starting out and the market began to go sideways, or consolidate, as shown in Figure Just about every time the computer gave a buy signal, the market went south, and just about every time the computer gave a sell signal, the market reversed and went north. When most people board an airplane and look inside the cockpit, they are intimidated by all the gauges they see.
How do I know? Just like when I turned on my computer back in the s and looked at charts, I, too, was extremely intimidated. But believe it or not, sideways movement can potentially offer the trader more trading opportunities than trends. Envision buying all the lows as seen in Figure and exiting at the highs and then reversing your position, shorting the market by selling all the highs taking a ride across the trading channel and exiting at the lows. It is clear to see by continually repeating this process that there is profit to be made.
Conversely, when going short or selling first to enter the market, every sell entry order needs two buy exit orders, one for profit and one for loss. After you enter the market, you need the two exit points, one for profit and one for financial protection should the trade not work out. The fact of the mat- ter is that no one knows where the next pip will go. The best you can do is to understand how the market works and learn how to go with it. But success comes to those who understand how it works—just look at the people who have been able to create great compa- nies that haul freight, passengers, or oil over the ocean.
After the market has moved in your direction from entry, as planned, the question is where do you get out? The last thing in the world you want to do is guess what the market is going to do next. Let a simple mathe- matical calculation of price movement against time tell you instead. Remember the two indicators—the moving trend lines that are overlapping the candles and the MTI Trend Tracker at the bottom of the chart?
If you take a long position and want to become a long-term trader, you may want to stay in until the moving trend lines cross over. However, if you only want to grab a few pips, and you entered using the indicator below, you may want to get out after that line has moved from the south to the north and is beginning to U-turn back south see Figure Some traders use the movement of their indicators as their protective stop loss orders—they let the indicators make their decisions regarding when to reverse their positions.
Your hope and or fear will get the best of you. What is critical is finding and calculating where your pro- tective stop order needs to go as you are making your trading plan. Once you find that location, after you enter the market, place that order immediately and do not move it if you are trading an OCO one cancels the other order. Trading is about keeping your losses small and letting your profits run. The problem with most Forex traders is they hold onto their losses and quickly dump their profits for fear the market will take them back.
They have the definitions of hope and fear backwards. They will hold a losing position for days, sweating it out, walking through the valley in the shadow of death, praying, hoping, promising God and everyone else that will listen to just help them get back to breakeven and once they do, they dump their position after only capturing a few pips. Some traders will go pips in the red to only exit after a brutal ordeal and capture only 2 pips.
Learning where to place your protective stop loss orders and creating a trading plan before you trade is of critical importance as a novice trader. Trade a simple strategy with a clear entry order accompanied by two exit orders trying to capture a profit of perhaps 10 to 20 pips. Your aim should be to establish the habit of winning more than you are losing.
After you get in the habit of winning more than losing, and realizing that losing is just as much a part of this game as winning, you will then be able to move to a larger time frame to capture more pips, perhaps capturing 40 to 80 pips at a time, consistently, 7 out of 10 times with some losses. After you get the simple basics down of winning more than losing, you can start learning more advanced exit strategies.
Take two different time frames, for example, a daily time frame and a four-hour time frame, using the same MTI Trend Scalper trad- ing system on both time frames. Look what happens to the price movement on a four-hour chart when the indicator U-turns on a daily chart, as seen in Figure Remem- ber, prices on a smaller time frame respond to the movement on a larger time frame. This works the same on all time frames and is a great way to trade.
The MTI checklist cross-checks important points for your entry and exit. These seven points are graded, indicating the odds of your making money, and include the use of indicators, candlestick formations, Fibonacci Fib numbers, coun- tertrend lines, and more. Trading needs to be fun and simple. Anyone who tries to impress you with all their knowledge and indicators see Figure will only confuse you.
A confused mind is going to take you down a path of financial destruc- tion. Stay clear from using too many indicators or complicated indicators. Keep it simple! Candlestick formations are the sign language of the mar- ket. They frequently tell the trader where U-turns or reversals are and where the market is going. Most beginner traders prefer learning how to read charts using what is called a Japanese candlestick, which monitors price movement against time. There are three types of charts traders can refer to: a line chart, a bar chart, or a candlestick chart.
Military confrontation had become a way of life in that country as feudal lords fought for control of rival territories. Once somewhat relative peace had been established, several new opportunities for expansion developed. It was during that the concept of the Japanese candlestick was being explored, tested, and used in monitoring prices in the rice markets.
Because there was no standardized currency, the price of rice became the predominant medium of exchange, or currency. In the late s, the Rice Exchange was formed to regulate trading proceedings. By , there were more than 1, rice dealers. Rather than just deal in actual rice, rice coupons were issued, and these became one of the first forms of futures contracts ever traded. Similar events took place in other parts of the world. There was the Tulip Mania that swept The Netherlands in the early s, which also involved a form of futures contract.
During this period, tulips became the standard medium of exchange and became even more valuable than gold there. The popularity of these Tulip coupons were drawing attention around the world and other countries began to catch on to this effective way of trad- ing. Rice coupons in Japan became significant, with a bale of rice being the standard amount to be traded. An empty rice coupon became a form of a futures contract—a coupon for rice that may not even be planted or harvested yet.
The rice is traded for a specific future date, as if it was grown and going to be delivered to that person on that future date. Today, futures trading is a multibillion dollar industry. But where do Japanese candlesticks fit in? Munehisa Homma was born into a wealthy Japanese farming family in Homma had an aptitude for business and would eventually become a dominant trader in the Japanese rice market.
Although candlesticks were not actually developed by Homma, he studied the psychology of investors and formulated several key trading principles. These concepts evolved into the candlestick charting techniques that we know today. Candlestick charts were originally plotted painstakingly by hand. This labor-intensive step, as well as the fact that many Japanese traders could not properly communicate or share their trading methods due to language barriers, meant that the use of Japanese candlestick formations could not become widespread until recent times.
As the candlesticks form, they begin to tell a story of the activity in the market, as well as reflect the mood of the market during that time. Candlesticks become the sign language of the market, communicating via certain forma- tions the future potential moves of the market, which is how profits are made—by projecting correctly where the market will go, not where it has been. Successful traders take the time to study and understand this visual lan- guage.
Candlestick formations indicate clear buy and sell signals, commu- nicating to the trader when it is time to enter the market or to get out. How well you understand candlestick formations can give you a significant advantage in the market. They will appear in the form of a single candlestick or a combination of more than one candlestick.
There are hundreds of formations, yet only a handful of formations carry substantial weight when looking for a good entry point. A good entry point is described as a location where the market goes your way from the beginning. Let us see what a Japanese candlestick looks like and how it forms see Figure Candlesticks, which are composed of full bodies and wicks, measure price fluctuations within a certain period of time.
As prices move up or down from the opening, the body begins to form. If, from the opening price, prices move up and then close higher than the opening, it is a bullish candle. If prices begin to fall from the opening price and close lower than the opening, it is a bearish candle. For example, you can set your charts to provide you with 5-minute candlesticks, , , or minute candlesticks, even hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly.
Candlesticks monitor price movement against time, providing traders with four key pieces of information for that specific time period: the opening price, the closing price, the highest price reached, and the lowest price reached.
Trading is a financial game involving two opponents: the bulls and bears. We all know that there are not actual bulls and bears trading in the market, but investors and traders who have invested either in a bullish direction or a bearish direction. Both sides have clear objectives and want the market to move in their direction: bulls want the market to go up, or rally, to make higher highs, whereas the bears want to take the market down, or have it dip to make lower lows.
The numbers to the far right indicate the price and the numbers at the bottom of the chart indicate the time period. The very last candle to the right is the current candle, indicating the current price. All the previous candles, to the left of the current candle, have recorded the historic price movement during that time.
As you see in Figure , all the icons to the left, top, and right of the actual chart are your trading tools. A high can be considered a new level of resistance, or a higher price level achieved by the bulls that is interrupted and reversed by the bears.
However, not all highs are major levels of resistance. Only highs that are higher than the current market can be considered a level of resistance see Figure The levels of resistance noted in the above chart as R1, R2, R3, R4, and R5 become future price targets for the bulls to chase and move higher. Once they regain control of the market, they will aim to make higher highs and higher lows. The bears are maintaining control in the above chart, as the market is making lower lows and lower highs.
A low can be considered as a new level of support, or a lower price level that was achieved by the bears and then interrupted and reversed by the bulls; however, only lows that are lower than the current market level can be considered a level of support see Figure Once they gain control of the market again, they will aim to make lower lows and lower highs.
The bulls control the above market example. Although candlesticks may look alike, the 20 formations listed in Figure will provide you with a solid understanding of candlestick formations and their meanings. If the line occurs after a significant uptrend, it is called a hanging man. A hammer is identified by a small body a small range between the open and closing prices and a long lower shadow the low is significantly lower than the open, high, and closes. The body can be empty or filled in.
The first line, on the left, is a bearish line, and the second line is a bullish line. The second line opens lower than the first line's low but closes more than halfway above the first line's real body. This pattern is strongly bullish if it occurs after a significant downtrend it acts as a reversal pattern. It occurs when a small bearish line is engulfed by a large bullish line.
This is a bullish pattern signifying a potential bottom. The star, at the bottom between the two lines, indicates a possible reversal; the bullish line confirms this. The star can be empty or filled in. Thus, this pattern usually indicates a reversal after an indecisive period. You should wait for a confirmation, as in the morning star in the previous pattern, before trading a Doji star. The first line can be empty or filled in. They are identified by small real bodies a small range between open and closing prices and a long lower shadow, that is, the low was significantly lower than the open, high, and close.
The bodies can be empty or filled in. This is a bearish pattern that is more significant if the second line's body is below the center of the previous line's body as illustrated. This line is strong and bearish if it occurs after a significant uptrend—it acts as a reversal pattern. It occurs when a small bullish line is engulfed by a large bearish line. This is a bearish pattern signifying a potential top. The star indicates a possible reversal, and the bearish line confirms it.
The star can be empty or filled in or it can be a Doji star. A star indicates a reversal and a Doji indicates indecision. You should wait for a confirmation, such as an evening star illustration, before trading a Doji star. This pattern suggests a minor reversal when it appears after a rally. The star's body must appear near the low price, and the line should have a long upper shadow. This line often signifies a turning point.
It occurs when the open and close are the same, and the range between the high and the low is relatively large. This line also signifies a turning point. This pattern occurs when the open and the close are the same and the low is significantly lower than the open, high, and closing prices. This line signifies another turning point.
It occurs when the open, close, and low are the same, and the high is significantly higher than the open, low, and closing prices. Stars indicate reversals. A star is a line with a small real body that occurs after a line with a much larger real body, where the real bodies do not overlap, although the shadows may.
These are neutral lines. They occur when the distance between the high and the low, and the distance between the open and the close, are relatively small. This line implies indecision because the security opened and closed at the same price. These lines can appear in several different patterns.
This implies a forceful move will follow a breakout from the current indecision. It occurs when a line with a small body falls within the area of a larger body. In this example, a bullish line with a long body is followed by a weak bearish line and implies a decrease in the bullish momentum. When it moves, the candlesticks provide a visual sign that monitors the strength or weakness of the market in a certain direction. However, there are two basic types of candlesticks: 1.
Decision candlesticks 2. Indecision candlesticks Decision candlesticks are full-bodied bullish or bearish candles with rela- tively small wicks on either side. They communicate to the trader that either the bulls or the bears are in control. The indecision candlestick formation is exactly the opposite, with small bodies and, in some cases, no bodies at all—just a line where the open and the close were at the same price with large wicks on either side or on both sides see Figure As the market moves, it creates visual waves, and the candlesticks form different patterns.
Movements are caused by investors entering and exiting the market. When there are more buyers than sellers, the market begins to rally; when there are more sellers than buyers, the market begins to dip, or decline; and when there are equal numbers of buyers and sellers, the market goes sideways. These patterns communicate the strength or weakness of the continued move.
As the market moves, it waves, and the can- dlesticks form bullish and bearish reversal patterns. These patterns are the sign language of the market and the buy and sell signals for the traders. The patterns communicate when it is time to get in and when it is time to get out. These patterns can become invaluable whenever they appear at the end of a downtrend in a smaller time frame, which many times is nothing more than the end of a retracement in a larger time frame.
It is imperative to note that as the market moves sideways in a to pip trading range, the market may form all kinds of bullish and bearish candle- stick patterns, which should be ignored. It is imperative not to trade these candlestick formations in small consolidated or sideways movement. The charts being used in this book have black and white candles— the black candles are bearish and the white are bullish.
What is important to note is that in the formation of morning stars, they start out with a bearish decision candle, followed by one, two, three, or even four indecision candles before the decision bullish candle appears.
In Figure B, a morning star appears at the bottom of the chart, signifying the end of the recent dip. A morning star forms when you have a large bear- ish decision candle followed by one or more indecision candles, which are followed by a bullish decision candle that closes beyond the 60 percent mark, or beyond the top half of the beginning bearish decision candle.
It indicates the market is U-turning. Investor Psychology Behind the Morning Star The bears are losing control and investors are no longer selling when you spot a morning star. More buyers have come into the market, which creates an equal number of buyers and sellers. In the end, more buyers step in and take control of the market.
Bears are placed in hibernation, and bulls come out of their corrals in herds. The final bullish candle of the formation sends ripples of greed throughout the trading community and a major rally takes place, especially when accompanied by significant trading volume. It can also be the turning point or the end of the retrace- ment in an uptrend see Figure A. An ideal bullish engulfing candle is formed when the candle opens lower than the close of the previous bearish decision candle, engulfing the previous two or three bearish candles.
This is a strong sign of a U-turn. The bulls are clearly taking control, as seen in Figure B. Traders with short positions make a quick dash to cover their exposure, and their rush to exit their positions adds power to the creation of the pattern. The volume on the uptake component shows that the majority of traders have changed camp from bearish to bullish within the duration of one period.
Buyers step in and create an environment of equal buyers and equal sellers, which forms two or more indecision candles. Figure A shows the formations. When the market has been falling and a clear decision has been made by the bulls to take over, tweezer bottoms are formed. The market contin- ues to move down, and bearish candles are formed.
All of a sudden, an indecision candle appears, which means more bulls have started buying. We now have equal buyers and sellers. When bears attempt to take prices lower and bulls step in and buy more than bears, a long wick on the south side of a small-bodied candle forms.
A second attempt is made by the bears to take prices lower, with the same results, leaving another inde- cision candle with a long wick on the south side of the small body of the indecision candle, next to the last one. The lows of the two candles, as dis- played by the wicks, are usually at the same price or within a couple of pips difference, which now creates a new level of support.
Anyone wanting to make a profit in this next rally needs to start buying right now! Because higher prices are likely to follow the formation of tweezer bottoms, as you see in Figure B. Invester Psychology Behind the Tweezer Bottoms The bears have created lower prices, which have been tested, and new buy- ers have entered the market. As traders note more bullish participation, a rally is implied. The bears were unable to acquire the interest of more sell- ers and were not strong enough to hold prices down.
Several attempts for lower prices failed, as evidenced by the long wicks on the south side of the small-bodied candles. The tweezer bottoms are a sign of selling exhaustion. It is important to note that the tweezer bottoms do not need to be side- by-side; they can be several candles apart, as long as the lows of the wicks are close to each other, with only a difference of a few pips. Such a forma- tion will create a level of support.
These patterns can become invaluable whenever they appear at the end of an uptrend in a smaller time frame, which many times is nothing more than the end of a retracement in a larger time frame. It is imperative that you remember not to trade these candlesticks formations in small consolidated or sideways movement.
What is important to note is that it starts out with a bullish decision candle, followed by perhaps one, two, three, even four indecision candles before the decision bearish candle appears. In Figure B, an evening star appears at the top of the chart, signify- ing the end of the recent rally.
An evening star forms when you have a large bullish decision candle, followed by one or more indecision candles, which are followed by a bearish decision candle that closes beyond the 60 percent mark, or beyond the bottom half of the beginning bullish decision candle. It signifies the market is U-turning. If the last bearish candle closes above the halfway point of the first bullish candle of the formation, it is a sign of continued bullish sentiment. Investor Psychology Behind the Evening Star In Figure B, the bulls start out rallying like a rocket going to the moon, driving prices higher.
Initially, it seems nothing can stop them. These initial candles reinforce the bullish sentiment. All of a sudden, a spinning top appears—a sign of indecision—in the form of a small indecision candle. It is quickly followed by a bearish decision candle and the session quickly U-turns.
The bulls lose control and investors are no longer buying. More sellers come into the market, which creates the dip in prices. Bulls run for cover and begin liquidating their bullish positions, which adds to the bearish momentum.
In the end, more sellers step in and take control of the market. Bulls are corralled and bears come out of hibernation. The final bearish candle of the formation sends ripples of fear throughout the trading community and a major sell-off takes place, especially when accompanied by significant trading volume. It can also be the turning point or end of the retracement in a downtrend, as seen in Figure B. The opening price of the bearish engulfing candle must be higher than the close of the previous bullish candle and the closing price of the bearish engulfing candle must be lower than the open of the previous bullish candle.
The prototypical bearish engulf- ing candle occurs when the open of the bearish engulfing candle opens higher than the close of the previous bullish decision candles and engulfs several previous bullish candles. This is a strong sign of a U-turn when the bears are taking control. Investor Psychology Behind the Bearish Engulfing Pattern On an emotional level, a devastating blow has been swiftly delivered to the bulls when an engulfing bearish candle appears.
Those feeling optimistic and buoyant about the upward market direction have been proverbially kicked in the teeth. Traders with long positions make a quick dash to cover their exposure, and their rush to exit their positions adds power to the creation of the bearish engulfing pattern. Within the duration of one period, the majority of traders have changed camp from a bullish perspective to a bearish orientation. Sellers step in and balance out the numbers of buyers, which forms two or more indecision candles see Figure A.
In Figure B, the market has been rallying, but a clear decision has been made by the bears to take over, observed via the formation of tweezer tops. As the market was moving up, bullish candles were forming. Then all of a sudden, an indecision candle appears, which means more bears have stepped in selling.
There are now equal buyers and sellers. A tweezer top formation starts out with a bullish decision candle, followed by perhaps one, two, three, or even four indecision candles, as seen in Figure A. A tweezer top appears when the bulls attempt to take prices higher and bears step in and sell more than the bulls, creating a long wick on the north side of a small-bodied candle. A second attempt is made by the bulls to take prices higher, with the same results, leaving another indecision candle with a long wick, on the north side of the small body of the indecision candle next to the last one.
The highs of the two candles, as displayed by the wicks, are usually at the same price or within a couple of pips difference, which now creates a new level of resistance. Anyone wanting to make a profit in this next dip needs to start selling right now! Because lower prices are likely to follow the formation of this pattern, as shown in Figure B. Indecision candles have formed next to each other and, in this case, three in a row, as seen in Figure B.
With such resistance, the market collapses. With increased bearish participation, bears enter the market charging, and the result will be a dip. Shortly after the dip, the bulls try one last time to see if they can attract any more buying interest. It is important to note that the failed attempt of the bulls to create higher prices formed the tweezer tops, although they do not need to be side by side. Your common sense is an excellent guide as well.
For example, your common sense should tell you that in a downtrend, only trade bearish candlestick formations, not bullish. Because you are trading in the direction of the trend where the market strength is. You have a greater probability of the market moving in your direction after entry versus fighting against the trend. Obviously, you would do the oppo- site in an uptrend. When you trade in the direction of the trend, you will always have the market movement on your side, pushing the market in the direction of the current trend.
In trading any candlestick formation, you must wait until the last candle closes before you enter the market because the market may not necessarily react immediately after the candlestick formation has formed. Keep in mind that as long as you have your stop-loss orders in place, you are protected. The market will move on its own timetable—not yours. You have no control of the future movement of the market.
No one knows where the next pip will go. As long as the candles are above the outer moving uptrend line, you should enter buying bullish candlestick formations and exit selling bearish candlestick formations; the opposite applies in a downtrend. When the candles are below the outer moving trend line, enter selling bearish candle- stick formations and exit buying bullish candlestick formations, as shown in Figure Trading is a game of probabilities and to put the probability of success in your favor, it is always helpful to compile more than one piece of evi- dence that the market will potentially U-turn and move in your direction at the price level you enter.
In other words, success is increased if you have more than one educated reason to enter the market. When you have more than one good reason to enter a trade, that is what is called creating a con- vergence.
This is, in essence, nothing more than building a case as to why the market is going to turn at that location. Why is it that all of a sudden, at one number, the market creates a candlestick formation and changes direction or U-turns? It is almost as if there was a conspiracy taking place among a group of traders. We all know that is impossible, because there is no Forex building or pit filled with Forex traders who could manipulate prices.
My sense is that nature must stay in balance, and nature takes whatever course it must to remain in bal- ance. As human beings, we are part of nature and because we are the ones trading in the market, it is our buying and selling that make the movement in this market.
The market is part of nature and will take whatever course it must to remain in balance, as you will see in Chapter 9. Nature can provide signs on our path to success of which I know most people never think about it. However, those individuals who try to understand it and tap into the potential it holds are the people who will benefit most and live fulfilling and wonderful lives.
I thought about all the trading opportunities I had missed over the years, due to the fact that I was not educated or ready to read the signs of success the market provided, like the evening stars and morning stars. If learning to become a successful trader is something you really want to achieve, you will need to prepare yourself to read the signs of the market. It is there you will find success. It is a game played on a daily basis by two teams, or two types of investors on opposite sides of a trade.
The bulls want the market to go up. The bears want the market to go down. The two sides are in constant, unrelenting bat- tle, fighting for control of the trading territory. Some make millions while others keep hoping the market will turn in their favor as they continue to root for their team—the bulls or the bears. It sounds crazy when you hear that a trillion-dollar financial market works this way, but it does. Like any game in our lives, there are objectives, rules, and penalties.
Each side is trying to get ahead by scoring points, following the rules of the game. You must obey the rules if you are planning to succeed in trading. If you break them, you are more than penalized— you fail. It is a fascinating book that relates how, at one point, the president of the bank had not placed the proper controls over what his Forex traders were doing and describes the calamity that resulted.
Because of the lack of rules or oversight, a rogue group of Forex traders began to take huge financial positions in various currencies. In time, they started adding to their losing positions in hopes that they could cost average down which is the term used in a trading strategy where additional positions are taken in the same direction at lower prices from the original entry, in an attempt to average out your buying price.
Like any group of kids that find themselves in major trouble, the traders agreed to hide their misdeeds. However, as is usually the case with wrong- doing, one eventually will become so guilt ridden that the individual has to spill the beans, and this situation is no different. At the beginning of the investigation, it was determined that no real crime was committed by the traders—they were just irresponsible. The shareholders of the bank immediately demanded that the bank president be fired because of his lack of control over the bank.
As the investigation continued, many believed the only real crime committed was that of ASIC, which demanded the bank liquidate its positions. This was clearly unfortunate for the bank, because soon after all positions were liqui- dated and losses realized, all the currencies took off in the opposite direc- tion.
If the four rogue traders had maintained their silence and just held onto those positions for one more month, they would have recovered from all their unrealized losses and probably would have made millions for the bank.
This would have turned the bank president into a hero instead of a fired zero! The reality of the market and the amazing part of this story is that rule breakers are just as necessary as rule makers, and in the end the disciplined trader who abides by the rules makes a profit. Pension plans? Brokerage firms? Investment firms? Financial institutions? Individuals trade in the financials markets—human beings with human thoughts, human feelings, human emotions, and human fears.
Humans who represent the organizations listed above make multimillion-dollar financial decisions. Bulls and bears fight aggressively to make the mar- ket go their way. For the Forex market to trade, there must be someone buy- ing and someone selling simultaneously. In other words, one trader must be a bull going long and one must be a bear going short.
Both traders are adamant about their positions, despite the fact that they rely on extremely accurate information, often from the same sources. What is amazing is they are adamant about the market going in opposite directions. In the market, the bulls and bears have different characteristics, yet they want the same thing—they both want to make a profit! Bulls and bears enter the market buying or selling in hopes that more bulls or bears will enter after them, giving the market what is called bullish or bearish strength—creating a greater rally or greater dip.
If their counterparts step in, the market will begin to move in their direction. Take the bulls, for example. If you wanted to be a bull, you would enter the market and, if your analysis was right, more bulls would enter and the market would begin to rally and reach new highs, or what is called higher highs. Now, what I have discov- ered is, most of the time, after the bulls achieve a new high, frequently prices start to retrace, or fall back down.
I was in George, South Africa, working at one of our international offices one afternoon and had been tracking a high on the GBP, the British pound, for several months. Just watch and trade the GBP. The second one of them appears, go short! Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8. With a consensus at 9. What the heck! This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits after the run up to the news event.
The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9. This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of Since the market consensus was 9. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as "an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders," he said. You must remember that investors hate uncertainty! For Trump the upward trend was also there due to his promise to lower taxes and increase government spending on infrastrucure.
Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Market psychology The golden rule of economic indicators The currency rates often start moving even before the actual data comes out due to forecasts and market sentiment! Sentiment analysis is a kind of FX analysis that concentrates on indicating and consequently measuring the overall psychological and emotional state of all participants of the foreign exchange market. This kind of Forex analysis strives to quantify what percentage of FX market participants are bullish or bearish, in other words being optimistic or pessimistic.
If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted, it amplifies the rise of the currency even more. Overlap between two The Foreign Exchange market operates 24 hours a day, making it nearly impossible sessions for a single trader to track every market Generally, whenever there is an overlap in movement and respond immediately at the market e. In period. News Release market hours. Fundamentals drive the market.
During News Release, volatility is experienced and Besides liquidity, a currency pair's trading some pairs could move over pips range is also heavily dependent on depending on the type of news. For example geographical location and macroeconomic Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile news factors. Knowing what time of day a currency pair However, trading news is risky if you are not has the highest or narrowest trading knowledgeable about it.
However, its risky to trade these less iregular market movements caused by speeches except you are subscribed to some aggressive intraday speculation. The timing in forex trading is is usually the most active as it involves many crucial! The US market comes next, so the time when the London session The Forex market is open 24 hours a day, but it is intersects with the US session usually provides the not active all this time!
In Forex trading money is biggest returns. Expert traders consider 10 AM to made when the market is active when traders are be the best time as this is the period when the bidding on the prices so it is crucial for you to London market is preparing to close the trades learn about the most productive hours of the day and traders are getting ready to move to US and of the week for trading the forex!
This creates big swings in currency prices thus opening great opportunities for profit. Fridays are busy as well, but only until PM and during the second half of the day the movements can be very unpredictable. While it is crucial to understand when is the best time to analyze the charts and make the bids, it is equally important to know when NOT to open positions.
A thin market also comes with higher commissions spreads for each trade due to the decreased liquidity. In simple words: if you want to sell a currency, it is harder to find potential buyers, so the broker or bank must increase the commission as it takes a risk of not finding a buyer so quickly.
A good example of chaotic trading is shortly before, during and shortly after important news events. In these times of uncertainty, the currency rates can swing wildly and unpredictably, thus messing up trading by creating execution lags, triggering stop-loss orders, etc. Usually, the higher the liquidity, the lower the volatility, and therefore the tighter the spread Spread is like a commission that you pay for the trade.
However, even major pairs can experience wider than normal spreads during volatile periods, such as interest rates announcements, GDP reports, unemployment figures, to name a few examples. Most forex brokers allow you to trade all weekend, but spreads will be significantly wider during weekends when liquidity is almost non-existent.
Unfortunately, banks do the same thing, so an average forex broker could be better, but only marginally. What happens before or during important announcements. The volatility jumps before important anouncements and the drastic movements can hit the stop-losses, resulting in a lost trade and investment. So I generally close the position or wait out the increased spread unless it is really pumping. This should not be a problem if you are trading the higher time frames as your stop will probably be quite large and so increasing it by 5 or 10 pips probably won't be too significant risk increase better yet - factor in the widened spread when you calculate your position size as you know that if the trade works out you will be holding for a few days or more, in which time there will be anouncements.
If you can't be at your computer when the news anuncement hits, I would suggest leaving your stop wider for the periods that you can't manage the trade unless there are no announcements over that period. If you are trading lower time frames however, your stops will inevitably be smaller and the increase in stop size may substantially increase your risk.
In this case, you may have to decide to close the position before the anouncment or close enough of the position so that the increased stop will equal the same loss as the originally intended loss. But make no mistake - you will have to widen your stop. The spread will get you. Even if the announcement is in your favour, price generally whips up and down at least a few pips before taking direction. If your stop is anywhere near price just prior to news, chances are you will be taken out not matter what the result.
Just be aware of the anouncement times and factor this in when deciding wether or not to take a trade. It may often seem that these indicators are contradictory. Analyses of longer time periods show tendencies, ignoring accidental changes, whereas daily, hourly ir minute graphs help in choosing the moment to open and close positions. Example Multiple time frame analysis time X Let us look at a daily graph. What do most traders do when they see such a curve?
Section 04 Time frames Time frame choice of pros The shortest time frame that traders should start looking at when their trading day starts are daily charts, even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame! The most common form of multiple time frame analysis is to use daily charts to identify the overall trend and then use the hourly charts to determine specific entry levels.
As a matter of principle, all good traders I know use 2—3 time frames 3 being the best spaced enough so that each timeframe above encompasses 4—8 bars from the lower time frame. Even then, I prefer to switch to the other time frames to be really sure about what to do. It attempts to predict price action and trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy, societal and other factors within a business cycle framework.
If you think of the markets as a big clock, fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face. Anyone can tell you what time it is now, but the fundamentalist knows about the inner workings that move the clock's hands towards times or prices in the future. What is Technical Analysis Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements. Technical analysts use historical currency data to forecast the direction of future prices.
The underlying belief behind technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency; therefore, studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions. In a nutshell, technical analysis assumes that history will repeat itself.
It can be tough to decide when you know enough to pull the trigger on a trade with confidence. Many traders switch to technical analysis at this point to test their hunches and see when price patterns suggest an entry. Look for Fundamental Drivers First The fundamentals include everything that makes a country and its currency tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events.
No one will ever win the age-long battle between technical and fundamental analysis. Prior to the mids, fundamental traders dominated the FX market. However, with the advent of new technologies, the influence of technical trading on the FX market has increased significantly.
Nowadays the best strategies tend to be the ones that combine both fundamental and technical analysis. Textbook perfect technical formations have failed too often because of major fundamental news and events like U. Most individual traders will start trading with technical analysis because for some it is But trading on fundamentals alone can also easier to understand and does not require be risky. There will oftentimes be sharp hours of news and fact checking. Nonetheless, technical analysis works well Therefore, it is very important for technical because the currency market tends to traders to be aware of the key economic data develop strong trends.
Once technical or events that are scheduled for release, and, analysis is mastered, it can be applied with in turn, for fundamental traders to be aware equal ease to any time frame or currency of important technical levels that the general traded. However, as we already noted - it is important to take both strategies into consideration, as fundamental analysis can trigger technical movements such as breakouts or reversal in trends.
Technical analysis, on the other hand, can also explain moves that fundamentals cannot, especially in quiet markets, causing resistance in trends or unexplainable movements. Wang, who started trading futures in , said he supplements his fundamental analysis of commodities supply and demand with simple forms of technical analysis.
One of his favorite measures is the day moving average. But he closed out the last of those positions on Wednesday, responding to local speculation that producers of coke and coking coal will be allowed to ramp up production. Natural resources often constitute the majority of the countries' exports, and the strength of the economy its currency can be highly dependent on the prices of these natural resources. These correlations makes them easier to trade.
For example, if gold breaks an important price level, you'd expect gold to move higher. With this in mind, you might sell dollars and buy Euros, for example, as a proxy for higher gold prices. These two major biggest oil consumer — the United States.
Monitoring exchange rates is essential to predicting earnings and corporate profitability. Throughout and , European manufacturers complained extensively about the rapid rise in the euro and the weakness in the U. This caused the EURUSD exchange rate to surge, which took a significant toll on the profitability of European corporations because a higher exchange rate makes the goods of European exporters more expensive to U.
Unfortunately, inadequate hedging is still a reality in Europe, which makes monitoring the EURUSD exchange rate even more important in forecasting the earnings and profitability of European exporters. Seizing on currency disparities, Russians made quick money by re-exporting the vehicles, which got so cheap in ruble terms that selling them back - sometimes to the same country that manufactured them in the first place - became a way to make a good profit.
They are hoping to buy before the yuan weakens any further. Expectations are mounting for a higher Fed rate target, boosting the appeal of holding dollars. Section 07 How forex influences business Real-world stories to help you understand how forex market works How China became the biggest investor in the U.
At the time, it received significant criticism because keeping the peg meant that the Chinese government would artificially weaken its currency to make Chinese goods more competitive. To maintain the band, the Chinese government had to sell the yuan and buy U.
These dollars were then used to purchase U. Treasuries, and this practice turned China into the world's largest holder of U. Risk management involves essentially knowing how much you are willing to risk and how much you are looking to gain. Without a sense of risk management, most traders simply hold on to losing positions for an extremely long amount of time, but take profits on winning positions prematurely.
There are a few key guidelines that every trader, regardless of their strategy or what they are trading, should keep in mind. Risk-reward ratio Stop-loss orders Traders should look to establish a risk-reward ratio for every trade they place. Traders should also employ stop-loss orders In other words, they should have an idea of as a way of specifying the maximum loss how much they are willing to lose, and how they are willing to accept.
By using stop-loss much they are looking to gain. Generally, the orders, traders can avoid the common risk-reward ratio should be at least , if not predicament of being in a scenario where more. Having a solid risk-reward ratio can they have many winning trades but a single prevent traders from entering positions that loss large enough to eliminate any trace of ultimately are not worth the risk.
Trailing stops to lock in profits are particularly useful. A good habit of more Pros recommend successful traders is to employ the rule of moving your stop to break even as soon as risk-reward ratio, and your position has profited by the same amount that you initially risked through the not risking more than stop order. Trends last longer than they might seem at first! With the Stop-Loss Order, you in loss. Wait for a beneficial tendency and will be able to control the situation even if then make your move!
Those who have the time, make they are increased by the number of daily transactions, others choose traders following them. Use trends in your long-term strategies. Keep it steady! Do you know which tools to use? Here are the three most popular tools: 1.
Oanda news Free Forex market commentary and analysis, statistics and more. By Mark Douglas. By Steve Nison. By Alexander Elder. By Mark Douglas 6. By Alex Nekritin. By Al Brooks.
PENTAGRAM AND FOREXDoesn't come close and development system. The process for was to configure addition cost to. The See the Update KDE Applications protocol takes long.
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